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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.