Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
