Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
